Befuddled Fed.

How the SVB collapse complicates the Fed’s fight against inflation

KPMG is the auditor of both SVB and Signature Bank. An audit opinion should include a ‘going concern’ warning if there is any doubt about the ability of a business to continue. No such warning was contained in either bank’s audit report. These latest misses put KPMG just below Scooby Doo on the inspection thoroughness scale. The difference is that the food-obsessed dog doesn’t hold himself out to be a subject matter expert in the banking industry.

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Credit: REUTERS/Michaela Vatcheva

How the SVB collapse complicates the Fed’s fight against inflation

According to the FDIC, US banks are sitting on $620 billion of investment losses – of the sort that contributed to the collapse of the SVB. The losses relate to fixed income securities (bonds, MBSs etc) the banks intend to hold to maturity.

The losses have been created by the swift, upward movement of interest rates. A 2% return on a 10-year bond may have been acceptable two years ago, but now investors are demanding more. This means that the market value of such bonds has fallen below face value – the amount that will be repaid at maturity – in order to reach the desired return.

Any further increase in interest rates puts these investments deeper underwater, potentially triggering more bank runs and complicating the Fed’s effort to fight inflation ($) with interest rate rises. The ‘soft landing’ is starting to look more like an episode of Air Crash Investigation.

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