We all know about ‘black swan’ events – sudden, seismic events that can’t be rationalized. An analyst has described SoftBank’s success backing Arm as a ‘white swan’ event. And it’s partly that investment that has stuck 15% onto the investment firm’s share price. Almost begins to make up for that WeWork palaver.

The lowdown

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• 💹 Japanese stocks hit a 34-year high.

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SoftBank surges on earnings beat

SoftBank rose as much as 15% in Japanese trading after posting earnings that beat expectations. The investment firm’s first profit in five quarters was boosted by the Vision Fund, its flagship tech investment arm. The share price was also lifted by strong results from Arm, a SoftBank portfolio company, which beat estimates and gave a strong forecast amid the AI boom.

Previous quarters have been challenging for SoftBank. In the second quarter of 2023 it posted a $6.2 billion loss tied to soured bets including WeWork, which filed for bankruptcy in November.

Going right back, SoftBank was known for its early bet on Alibaba, but has cut its stake recently. The firm’s CFO said the firm has shifted from an Alibaba-focused to an AI-focused portfolio.

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Off-balance sheet items

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The bottom line