The domino effect is the theory that small economic events lead to increasingly bigger ones, eventually triggering a recession. The Domino’s effect is the theory that when I come home drunk at 3am, I will always order pizza. We’ll be talking about the first one today.

The lowdown

• 🛢️ Exxon is close to buying shale driller Pioneer for $60 billion, its biggest deal since merging with Mobil in 1999.

• 🇨🇳 China plans to ease its data export rules, removing one of its biggest hurdles for foreign businesses.

• ✂️ Tesla cuts US prices of Model 3, Model Y cars.

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Jobs report set to show cooling US labor market

Trading was muted yesterday while investors waited for the big one: today’s jobs report. This month’s reading is particularly important because it’s expected to offer some clarity following mixed labor market data released this week.

Economists think the US added 170,000 jobs in September, according to a Bloomberg survey. If they’re right, that’d mark a slowdown in the labor market compared to the previous month. But if it’s higher – Goldman reckons 200,000 while Citigroup says 240,000 – it could increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in November.

Let’s continue with this worst timeline: if the Fed hikes, Treasury yields could push higher. That would potentially trigger a stock selloff, boosting the chances of a recession. It’s a lot of “what ifs”, but it goes some way to explaining why this jobs report is such an important data point to watch.

The content we're consuming today

• FT: Boomers and millennials have each others’ backs ($)

• Bloomberg: Poor mental health is costing UK firms £7 billion a year ($)

• The Verge: Getty’s plan to defend photography from AI

Off-balance sheet items

• Wondering which country’s cities have the best and worst air quality? I’ve got you.

The bottom line