Planning to buy a home this year? Maybe just get on with it. Vanguard doesn’t think the Fed will be cutting rates at all in 2024. Enjoy that fat mortgage, though.

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Vanguard says the Fed won’t cut rates this year

The Fed kept the market happy this week, saying it still expects to cut rates three times this year. Investors cheered, fuelling a rally in the US that was felt around the globe. The three major US stock indexes closed at record highs Wednesday, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 hit a record on Thursday morning.

But some big guns don’t think the Fed will do what it says. Vanguard thinks the central bank won’t cut at all in 2024. The asset manager argues the economy is doing better than expected which means reductions might not be needed. A recession is no longer Vanguard’s base case for this year, and it raised its US growth forecast from 0.5% to 2%.

Others agree with Vanguard’s call. Mark Okada of Sycamore Tree Capital Partners told CNBC there’s a “good chance” the central bank doesn’t cut in 2024. But the market as a whole is more optimistic. A CNBC survey of analysts still expects to see three cuts this year.

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