My girlfriend always says she wants me to surprise her more. I don’t think accidentally taking her keys to work was what she had in mind. Good thing I’m not in charge of rate guidance for a central bank.

The lowdown

• 📉 SocGen shares fall after the French bank says it expects weak growth.

• 🚧 China Evergrande shares tumble 25% after wealth management staff are detained.

• 🇹🇷 Erdogan asks Elon Musk to build a Tesla factory in Turkey.

Featured story

Has the Fed finished raising rates?

It’s one of those central bank weeks, with the Fed, BOE, and BOJ all making rate decisions.

It’s been a wild ride recently, as central bankers crank up rates to try to tame inflation. But that cycle is seemingly coming to an end. Big names like JPMorgan Asset Management and Janus Henderson think the Fed will hold rates this week, breaking its streak of 11 consecutive strikes.

That said, hedge funds have turned bullish on the dollar for the first time since March ($). It’s a signal that investors expect a “hawkish hold”, where policymakers keep rates where they are, but leave the option open of more tightening if the economic picture doesn’t improve.

But it wouldn’t be much fun if everyone agreed. The FT’s survey of leading academic economists found a majority thought the Fed would hike again before the job was done ($).

Central bank forecasting, eh. Can’t live with it, can’t live without it.

The content we're consuming today

• Financial News: Big Four accountants cut more jobs as staff exits plunge ($)

• WSJ: Does M&A work? The latest research says it’s a tossup ($)

• BBC: New tax divides India's booming computer games sector

Off-balance sheet items

• It’s London Fashion Week, Burberry has renamed Bond Street tube station to celebrate, and everyone is kicking off.

The bottom line