Weekend roundup

Here’s what you missed while you were living your best life:

• 🛡️ Google is reportedly in talks to make its biggest ever acquisition. The Wall Street Journal reported the company is looking to buy cybersecurity firm Wiz for $23 billion. Discussions are at an advanced stage.

• 🇨🇳 China’s economy faltered in Q2. GDP grew much slower than expected as a continued property downturn and job insecurity hampered a recovery.

• 🎥 BlackRock pulled an ad featuring the Trump rally shooter. The asset manager said the 2022 ad was filmed at Bethel Park High School in Pennsylvania. The shooter and several other unpaid students appeared in the background.

Featured weekend story

Investors expect surge in Trump victory trades

The shooting of former US President Donald Trump at a rally on Saturday will increase his chances of winning the election, investors say, and trades betting on his victory will increase this week.

Before the shooting, investors had positioned for another Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and steepening the Treasury yield curve. Rong Ren Goh, fixed income portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, told Reuters those trades could strengthen in the coming week.

The assassination attempt is also likely to kickstart a period of hightened volatility for risk assets, according to Frank Monkam, senior portfolio manager at Antimo. He told Bloomberg ($), “Trump trades are also poised to move on the high conviction list for investors, with a particular focus on rates markets where the re-pricing of fiscal profligacy will look to offset the prospects of imminent Fed cuts.”

Other assets linked to the so-called Trump trade include shares in energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies, and health insurers. Investors will also watch the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, both sensitive to tariffs, which had started to price in the US election.

What to watch this week

Bitcoin jumped with the dollar, and Treasury yields rose, as the Trump shooting dominated the market mood.

Indices at 12:00 AM (ET)

Here are your upcoming market events:

• 🏦 US bank earnings. Big financial names to report include BlackRock and Goldman on Tuesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley the following day.

  🇪🇺 ECB rate decision. A move us unlikely at Thursday’s meeting. Even a September cut probably won’t happen. Expect policy makers to keep their cards close to their chests.

• 🇬🇧 UK inflation. Headline CPI has hit the BOE’s 2% target, but the core reading is still at 3.5%. It may need to move closer to 3% to prompt a rate cut. The data drops on Wednesday.

Off-balance sheet items

Here’s what we’re reading this week:

• 🖥️ The history of the pivot table (Quartz). Pivot tables are among the most important tools in a spreadsheet wizard’s toolbox. But how did they come to be?

• 🌴 A four-day week can work – if staff and employers can deal with the challenges (The Conversation). Recent trials show a complex path to transforming the traditional work schedule.

• 🙊 I love office gossip – but there’s a right and a wrong way to do it (The Independent). A new study has claimed that gabbing about your colleagues is good for your social life but less so for your professional reputation. But what if it’s the most fun and important part of your work day?

Chart of the week

The bottom line

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